Individual-based simulation model for COVID-19 transmission in Daegu, Korea.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to obtain insights into the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in the city of Daegu, which accounted for 6,482 of the 9,241 confirmed cases in Korea as of March 26, 2020, to predict the future spread, and to analyze the impact of school opening. METHODS: Using an individual-based model, we simulated the spread of COVID-19 in Daegu. An individual can be infected through close contact with infected people in a household, at work/school, and at religious and social gatherings. We created a synthetic population from census sample data. Then, 9,000 people were randomly selected from the entire population of Daegu and set as members of the Shincheonji Church. We did not take into account population movements to and from other regions in Korea. RESULTS: Using the individual-based model, the cumulative confirmed cases in Daegu through March 26, 2020, were reproduced, and it was confirmed that the hotspot, i.e., the Shincheonji Church had a different probability of infection than non-hotspot, i.e., the Daegu community. For 3 scenarios (I: school closing, II: school opening after April 6, III: school opening after April 6 and the mean period from symptom onset to hospitalization increasing to 4.3 days), we predicted future changes in the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Daegu. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to scenario I, it was found that in scenario III, the cumulative number of patients would increase by 107 and the date of occurrence of the last patient would be delayed by 92 days.

Impact of Public Health and Social Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Other Countries: Descriptive Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The United States of America has the highest global number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, which may be due in part to delays and inconsistencies in implementing public health and social measures (PHSMs). OBJECTIVE: In this descriptive analysis, we analyzed the epidemiological evidence for the impact of PHSMs on COVID-19 transmission in the United States and compared these data to those for 10 other countries of varying income levels, population sizes, and geographies. METHODS: We compared PHSM implementation timing and stringency against COVID-19 daily case counts in the United States and against those in Canada, China, Ethiopia, Japan, Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe from January 1 to November 25, 2020. We descriptively analyzed the impact of border closures, contact tracing, household confinement, mandated face masks, quarantine and isolation, school closures, limited gatherings, and states of emergency on COVID-19 case counts. We also compared the relationship between global socioeconomic indicators and national pandemic trajectories across the 11 countries. PHSMs and case count data were derived from various surveillance systems, including the Health Intervention Tracking for COVID-19 database, the World Health Organization PHSM database, and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. RESULTS: Implementing a specific package of 4 PHSMs (quarantine and isolation, school closures, household confinement, and the limiting of social gatherings) early and stringently was observed to coincide with lower case counts and transmission durations in Vietnam, Zimbabwe, New Zealand, South Korea, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan. In contrast, the United States implemented few PHSMs stringently or early and did not use this successful package. Across the 11 countries, national income positively correlated (r=0.624) with cumulative COVID-19 incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that early implementation, consistent execution, adequate duration, and high adherence to PHSMs represent key factors of reducing the spread of COVID-19. Although national income may be related to COVID-19 progression, a country's wealth appears to be less important in controlling the pandemic and more important in taking rapid, centralized, and consistent public health action.

Turkey's transition to face-to-face schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic majorly disrupted conventional schooling and many countries maintained educational services through distance education. The duration of school closures in Turkey was longer than most OECD countries, thus Turkey prioritized school reopenings in the 2021-2022 academic year to mitigate possible negative outcomes of closures. Here we study the compatibility of implications for school reopenings in Turkey with these practices and assess the first semester of face-to-face schooling. METHODS: We have used document analysis to present and compare the practices in Turkey with international practices. We also used a comparative approach to assess the coherence between policies in Turkey and international suggestions. RESULTS: We find that vaccination rates of teachers and education staff are quite high in Turkey. Other practices, mandatory face masks, class-based closures and quarantine policies, are also in agreement with international practices. These steps are supported with frequent cleaning and ventilation of school environments, as well as with social distancing measures in schools. DISCUSSION: Consequently, the rate of daily closed classrooms has been kept below 1%, and the patterns of closures and openings are in general agreement with the changes of positive cases in the Turkish society. The net rate of closed classrooms decreased with the decline of quarantine days in Turkey. We hope that these insights will inform about school openings and contribute to best practices for face-to-face schooling.

Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19.

There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that by reactively closing classes based on syndromic surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 infections are reduced by no more than 17.3% (95%CI: 8.0-26.8%), due to the low probability of timely identification of infections in the young population. We thus investigated an alternative triggering mechanism based on repeated screening of students using antigen tests. Depending on the contribution of schools to transmission, this strategy can greatly reduce COVID-19 burden even when school contribution to transmission and immunity in the population is low. Moving forward, the adoption of antigen-based screenings in schools could be instrumental to limit COVID-19 burden while vaccines continue to be rolled out.

Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: In response to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the impact of COVID-19, national and subnational governments implemented a variety of measures in order to control the spread of the virus and the associated disease. While these measures were imposed with the intention of controlling the pandemic, they were also associated with severe psychosocial, societal, and economic implications on a societal level. One setting affected heavily by these measures is the school setting. By mid-April 2020, 192 countries had closed schools, affecting more than 90% of the world's student population. In consideration of the adverse consequences of school closures, many countries around the world reopened their schools in the months after the initial closures. To safely reopen schools and keep them open, governments implemented a broad range of measures. The evidence with regards to these measures, however, is heterogeneous, with a multitude of study designs, populations, settings, interventions and outcomes being assessed. To make sense of this heterogeneity, we conducted a rapid scoping review (8 October to 5 November 2020). This rapid scoping review is intended to serve as a precursor to a systematic review of effectiveness, which will inform guidelines issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). This review is reported in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist and was registered with the Open Science Framework. OBJECTIVES: To identify and comprehensively map the evidence assessing the impacts of measures implemented in the school setting to reopen schools, or keep schools open, or both, during the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic, with particular focus on the types of measures implemented in different school settings, the outcomes used to measure their impacts and the study types used to assess these. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register, MEDLINE, Embase, the CDC COVID-19 Research Articles Downloadable Database for preprints, and the WHO COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease on 8 October 2020. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies that assessed the impact of measures implemented in the school setting. Eligible populations were populations at risk of becoming infected with SARS-CoV-2, or developing COVID-19 disease, or both, and included people both directly and indirectly impacted by interventions, including students, teachers, other school staff, and contacts of these groups, as well as the broader community. We considered all types of empirical studies, which quantitatively assessed impact including epidemiological studies, modelling studies, mixed-methods studies, and diagnostic studies that assessed the impact of relevant interventions beyond diagnostic test accuracy. Broad outcome categories of interest included infectious disease transmission-related outcomes, other harmful or beneficial health-related outcomes, and societal, economic, and ecological implications. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data from included studies in a standardized manner, and mapped them to categories within our a priori logic model where possible. Where not possible, we inductively developed new categories. In line with standard expectations for scoping reviews, the review provides an overview of the existing evidence regardless of methodological quality or risk of bias, and was not designed to synthesize effectiveness data, assess risk of bias, or characterize strength of evidence (GRADE). MAIN RESULTS: We included 42 studies that assessed measures implemented in the school setting. The majority of studies used mathematical modelling designs (n = 31), while nine studies used observational designs, and two studies used experimental or quasi-experimental designs. Studies conducted in real-world contexts or using real data focused on the WHO European region (EUR; n = 20), the WHO region of the Americas (AMR; n = 13), the West Pacific region (WPR; n = 6), and the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR; n = 1). One study conducted a global assessment and one did not report on data from, or that were applicable to, a specific country. Three broad intervention categories emerged from the included studies: organizational measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (n = 36), structural/environmental measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (n = 11), and surveillance and response measures to detect SARS-CoV-2 infections (n = 19). Most studies assessed SARS-CoV-2 transmission-related outcomes (n = 29), while others assessed healthcare utilization (n = 8), other health outcomes (n = 3), and societal, economic, and ecological outcomes (n = 5). Studies assessed both harmful and beneficial outcomes across all outcome categories. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We identified a heterogeneous and complex evidence base of measures implemented in the school setting. This review is an important first step in understanding the available evidence and will inform the development of rapid reviews on this topic.

Education for non-citizen children in Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative study.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted schooling for children worldwide. Most vulnerable are non-citizen children without access to public education. This study aims to explore challenges faced in achieving education access for children of refugee and asylum-seekers, migrant workers, stateless and undocumented persons in Malaysia during the pandemic. In-depth interviews of 33 stakeholders were conducted from June 2020 to March 2021. Data were thematically analysed. Our findings suggest that lockdowns disproportionately impacted non-citizen households as employment, food and housing insecurity were compounded by xenophobia, exacerbating pre-existing inequities. School closures disrupted school meals and deprived children of social interaction needed for mental wellbeing. Many non-citizen children were unable to participate in online learning due to the scarcity of digital devices, and poor internet connectivity, parental support, and home learning environments. Teachers were forced to adapt to online learning and adopt alternative arrangements to ensure continuity of learning and prevent school dropouts. The lack of government oversight over learning centres meant that measures taken were not uniform. The COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity for the design of more inclusive national educational policies, by recognising and supporting informal learning centres, to ensure that no child is left behind.

Comparison of hybrid learning and remote education in the implementation of the "Adopt a Microorganism" methodology.

The Internet has changed the way teachers and students access information and build knowledge. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has created challenges for both teachers and students and a demand for new methodologies of remote learning. In the life sciences, mixing online content with practical activities represents an even greater challenge. In microbiology, the implementation of an active teaching methodology, the #Adopt project, based on the social network Facebook®, represents an excellent option for connecting remote education with classroom activities. In 2020, the version applied in high school, "Adopt a Microorganism", was adapted to meet the demands of emergency remote education owing to the suppression of face-to-face activities caused by the pandemic. In the present study, we assessed how the change in methodology impacted the discourse richness of students from high school integrated with technical education in the Business Administration program of the Federal Institute of São Paulo, Sorocaba Campus. Three questionnaires related to the groups of microorganisms (Archaea, Bacteria, Virus, Fungi, and Protozoan) were applied. The students' responses in the 2019 and 2020 classes were compared concerning content richness and multiplicity of concepts through the application of the Shannon diversity index, an approach that is generally used to assess biodiversity in different environments. The observed results suggest that remote learning provided students with a conceptual basis and richness of content equivalent to that achieved by students subjected to the hybrid teaching model. In conclusion, this study suggests that the #Adopt project methodology increases students' discourse richness in microbiology even without face-to-face traditional classes.

No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.

Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of school closures in Japan on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools to a municipality with closed schools that is the most similar in terms of potential confounders, we can estimate how many cases the municipality with open schools would have had if it had closed its schools. We do not find any evidence that school closures in Japan reduced the spread of COVID-19. Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents.

The impact of school opening model on SARS-CoV-2 community incidence and mortality.

The role that traditional and hybrid in-person schooling modes contribute to the community incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections relative to fully remote schooling is unknown. We conducted an event study using a retrospective nationwide cohort evaluating the effect of school mode on SARS-CoV-2 cases during the 12 weeks after school opening (July-September 2020, before the Delta variant was predominant), stratified by US Census region. After controlling for case rate trends before school start, state-level mitigation measures and community activity level, SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates were not statistically different in counties with in-person learning versus remote school modes in most regions of the United States. In the South, there was a significant and sustained increase in cases per week among counties that opened in a hybrid or traditional mode versus remote, with weekly effects ranging from 9.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.7-16.1) to 21.3 (95% CI = 9.9-32.7) additional cases per 100,000 persons, driven by increasing cases among 0-9 year olds and adults. Schools can reopen for in-person learning without substantially increasing community case rates of SARS-CoV-2; however, the impacts are variable. Additional studies are needed to elucidate the underlying reasons for the observed regional differences more fully.

COVID-19-Related School Closures and Learning Modality Changes - United States, August 1-September 17, 2021.

Beginning in January 2021, the U.S. government prioritized ensuring continuity of learning for all students during the COVID-19 pandemic (1). To estimate the extent of COVID-19-associated school disruptions, CDC and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) (2) statistical approach to estimate the most likely actual learning modality based on patterns observed in past data, accounting for conflicting or missing information and systematic Internet searches (3) for COVID-19-related school closures. This information was used to assess how many U.S. schools were open, and in which learning modalities, during August 1-September 17, 2021. Learning modalities included 1) full in-person learning, 2) a hybrid of in-person and remote learning, and 3) full remote learning.

Association Between K-12 School Mask Policies and School-Associated COVID-19 Outbreaks - Maricopa and Pima Counties, Arizona, July-August 2021.

CDC recommends universal indoor masking by students, staff members, faculty, and visitors in kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) schools, regardless of vaccination status, to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (1). Schools in Maricopa and Pima Counties, which account for >75% of Arizona's population (2), resumed in-person learning for the 2021-22 academic year during late July through early August 2021. In mid-July, county-wide 7-day case rates were 161 and 105 per 100,000 persons in Maricopa and Pima Counties, respectively, and 47.6% of Maricopa County residents and 59.2% of Pima County residents had received at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. School districts in both counties implemented variable mask policies at the start of the 2021-22 academic year (Table). The association between school mask policies and school-associated COVID-19 outbreaks in K-12 public noncharter schools open for in-person learning in Maricopa and Pima Counties during July 15-August 31, 2021, was evaluated.

The Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Pediatric Asthma in the United States.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused severe economic and health impacts in the United States, and the impact is disproportionately more in socially disadvantages areas. The available data, albeit limited in children, suggest that the initial concerns of the potential of serious impact of COVID-19 illness in children with asthma are unproven so far. The reduction in asthma morbidities is due to improved adherence, COVID-19 control measures, school closures, and decreased exposure to allergens and viral infections in children. During the pandemic, asthma guidelines were updated to guide physicians in asthma care. In the face of unprecedented time, it is important to be vigilant, adhere to treatment guidelines, and implement preventive measures to eradicate the virus and improve outcomes in children with asthma.

Mental Health and Wellbeing of 9-12-year-old Children in Northern Canada Before the COVID-19 Pandemic and After the First Lockdown.

Objectives: Children's mental health and wellbeing declined during the first COVID-19 lockdown (Spring 2020), particularly among those from disadvantaged settings. We compared mental health and wellbeing of school-aged children observed pre-pandemic in 2018 and after the first lockdown was lifted and schools reopened in Fall 2020. Methods: In 2018, we surveyed 476 grade 4-6 students (9-12 years old) from 11 schools in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities in Northern Canada that participate in a school-based health promotion program targeting healthy lifestyle behaviours and mental wellbeing. In November-December 2020, we surveyed 467 grade 4-6 students in the same schools. The 12 questions in the mental health and wellbeing domain were grouped based on correlation and examined using multivariable logistic regression. Results: There were no notable changes pre-pandemic vs. post-lockdown in responses to each of the 12 questions or any of the sub-groupings. Conclusion: Supporting schools to implement health promotion programs may help mitigate the impact of the pandemic on children's mental health and wellbeing. The findings align with recent calls for schools to remain open as long as possible during the pandemic response.

Opening Schools and Trends in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in European Countries.

Objectives: Benefits of school attendance have been debated against SARS-CoV-2 contagion risks. This study examined the trends of contagion before and after schools reopened across 26 countries in the European Union. Methods: We compared the average values of estimated R t before and after school reopening, identifying any significant increase with a one-sample t-test. A meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis were performed to calculate the overall increase in R t for countries in the EU and to search for relationships between R t before schools reopened and the average increase in R t afterward. Results: The mean reproduction number increased in 16 out of 26 countries. The maximum increase in R t was reached after a mean 28 days. We found a negative relationship between the R t before school reopening and its increasing after that event. By 45 days after the first day of school reopening, the overall average increase in R t for the European Union was 23%. Conclusion: We observed a significant increase in the mean reproduction number in most European countries, a public health issue that needs strategies to contain the spread of COVID-19.

The Association Between School Closures and Child Mental Health During COVID-19.

Importance: In-person schooling has been disrupted for most school-aged youth during the COVID-19 pandemic, with low-income, Black, and Hispanic populations most likely to receive fully remote instruction. Disruptions to in-person schooling may have negatively and inequitably affected children's mental health. Objective: To estimate the association between school closures and child mental health outcomes and how it varies across sociodemographic factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional population-based survey study included a nationally representative sample of US adults aged 18 to 64 years with at least 1 child in the household. The survey was administered between December 2 and December 21, 2020, via web and telephone in English and Spanish. Participants were recruited from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel, an address-based panel with known probability sampling and coverage of 97% of US households. Exposures: Schooling modality (in person, fully remote, or hybrid), household income, age. Main Outcomes and Measures: Child mental health difficulties were measured with the parent-report version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, with small, medium, and large effect sizes defined as 1.3-, 3.3-, and 5.2-point differences, respectively. Results: A total of 2324 adults completed the survey. Overall, 1671 respondents (71.9%) were women, 244 (10.5%) were Black, 372 (16.0%) were Hispanic, and 421 (18.1%) had a high school education or less. Children attending school in-person had higher household incomes (mean difference, $9719; 95% CI, $4327 to $15 111; P < .001) and were more likely to be White compared with those attending remotely (366 of 556 [65.8%] vs 597 of 1340 [44.5%]; P < .001). Older children in remote schooling had more mental health difficulties than those attending in-person schooling (standardized effect size, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.07 to 0.39] per year older; P = .006), corresponding to small effect sizes in favor of in-person schooling for older children and very small effect sizes favoring remote schooling for younger children. Children from families with higher income benefitted more from attending schools in-person compared with their peers from families with lower income (B = -0.20 [95% CI, -0.10 to -0.30] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P < .001), although this advantage was not apparent for children attending hybrid school (B = -0.05 [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.06] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P = .34), and directionally lower but not significantly different for children attending remote school (B = -0.12 [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.20] per $10 000-increase in annual income; P < .001). Learning pods fully buffered the associations of hybrid schooling (d = -0.25; 95% CI, -0.47 to -0.04) but not remote schooling (d = 0.04; 95% CI, -0.10 to 0.18) with negative mental health outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that older and Black and Hispanic children as well as those from families with lower income who attend school remotely may experience greater impairment to mental health than their younger, White, and higher-income counterparts. Ensuring that all students have access to additional educational and mental health resources must be an important public health priority, met with appropriate funding and workforce augmentation, during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.